Vic's Picks, Week 16: Can Lovie Smith's Texans keep it close again? (2024)

Seven NFL teams last week earned a win in the final two minutes of regulation or in overtime. Seven! And you expect me to correctly pick these games …

One thing is clear. It’s impossible to prepare for a Lovie Smith-coached team.

His Texans roster stinks, so much so that it’s proven impossible for opposing teams to watch the game film and think they have anything to worry about when they play Houston. The Texans almost beat the Cowboys two weeks ago, so the Chiefs coaches had plenty of talking points before playing the game in Houston last Sunday.

Didn’t matter.

Overtime. The Chiefs barely win. And Smith, that marvelous beard of his and the Texans cover the spread again.

We had the Chiefs last week, along with eight other hairy losing picks. We went 7-9 against the spread and 2-2 in our best bets thanks to one-point losses by the Vikings and Saints. We are back on the Chiefs this week against the fading Seahawks, and our other best bets are the Bears hosting the Bills, the Titans hosting the Texans — stubbornness is a disease — and the Commanders on the road to keep it close against the 49ers.

Last week: 7-9 against the spread.

Season record: 105-114-5 ATS (Plays of the week are 19-22-3 overall)

All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made. Click here for live odds.

Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets (-1.5) | 8:15 p.m. ET Thursday, Prime Video

Trevor Lawrence has seemingly arrived — his EPA per dropback with three-plus seconds to throw has improved from 27th in the league to ninth in the past seven weeks — and he is coming off two impressive wins against the Titans and Cowboys. The Jaguars are shooting up in the power rankings, and everyone loves them. Which means it’s time for us jump off after riding the Jags (hopefully this works out better than the Lions).

Zach Wilson is starting at quarterback for the Jets — whose playoff hopes now hang in the balance — and he will be OK against a generous Jaguars pass defense that will be without 2022 No. 1 pick Travon Walker. The bigger reason to back the Jets at home is the return of defensive tackle Quinnen Williams and his matchup against a patchwork Jacksonville offensive line.

With Williams this season, the Jets have a 38.6 percent pressure rate and 10.6 percent sack rate — both of which would rank second if stretched across a whole season. Without Williams, those numbers drop to 28 and 3.1 percent, respectively — which would rank 29th and last in the NFL.

The pick: Jets -1.5

Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears (+8.5) | 1 p.m. ET Saturday, CBS

Josh Allen — who took over the game in the fourth quarter against the Jets — has run the ball 38 times since Week 12, trailing only Jalen Hurts among QBs. Justin Fields — who still needs a lot of help from his front office — has run 21 times during that span. Yes, it’s the battle of the running quarterbacks.

It’s probably true most weeks, but especially this week the Bills can pick the score as the Bears defense is terrible. They usually pick to win but not cover the point spread — and we were finally on the right side of that last week with the Dolphins.

We don’t see any reason to go against that here. The Bears covered the spread last week and should be able to hang around thanks to Fields and a couple of underrated running backs in David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert.

As we mentioned at the top with the Texans, it’s impossible to get fired up to play the Bears.

The pick: Bears +8.5

New Orleans Saints at Cleveland Browns (-2.5) | 1 p.m. ET Saturday, CBS

The Saints turtled up last week, settling for the win and not the cover after a great start against the Falcons. That’s what we get for going with Dennis Allen.

The Browns also won, thanks to the Ravens blowing numerous scoring opportunities. Deshaun Watson was a little better in his third game back, and the Saints are not very good at getting pressure on the quarterback. Watson is averaging 6.47 air yards per attempt with the Browns, down from 9.07 in his previous four years with the Texans.

Watson had a 17-yard run against the Ravens, and that could be another thing that took some time to get going after his suspension. From 2018 to 2020, he trailed only Josh Allen in EPA off scrambles (75.08 for Watson) and ranked third in rushing first downs (93). The Saints rank 27th in success rate vs. QB runs (32.4 percent).

The pick: Browns -2.5

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-3) | 1 p.m. ET Saturday, CBS

I know, I know, Lovie Smith is the G.O.A.T. But he can’t change history — and history is important because it affects what happens in the future, or so they told me when I didn’t want to study history back when I was in school.

Derrick Henry has six career 200-yard rushing games — and four have come against the Texans. In five matchups against Houston since 2019, he’s averaged 195.6 yards on 28.2 carries.

This season, he has accounted for 38.1 percent of the Titans’ yards from scrimmage — the highest share of his career, and the second-highest share of any player since 2018, trailing only Christian McCaffrey’s 2019 season (40.2 percent).

The Titans also have a good run defense and they covered the spread against the Chargers last week, which was a positive step, and will now stop their four-game losing streak with a decisive home win. Their season is on the line, and I think Mike Vrabel gets the most out of his team here — even without an injured Ryan Tannehill.

The pick: Titans -3

Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs (-10) | 1 p.m. ET Saturday, Fox

Much like the Bills, the Chiefs just don’t cover a lot of big point spreads. But the Seahawks defense has gone off the rails, and Patrick Mahomes doesn’t even need to do much to win by 10 points here. Besides not getting a lot of pressure on Mahomes, the Seahawks won’t be able to stop running backs Jerick McKinnon or Isiah Pacheco.

The Seahawks have hit a skid but still have playoff hopes. QB Geno Smith should be OK without Tyler Lockett — he’s 32-of-44 for 364 yards (8.27 YPA) and a TD without him this season — but may not be able to lean on Kenneth Walker III and the running game as much as you think. Since their bye in Week 8, the Chiefs rank eighth in rush defense success rate (62.9 percent) and 10th in defensive EPA per rush.

It would be nice for Chiefs bettors if kicker Harrison Butker snaps out of his funk.

The pick: Chiefs -10

New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-4) | 1 p.m. ET Saturday, Fox

The Vikings made a mockery of our support last week, not showing up in the first half before making the greatest comeback in the history of the game — and not covering the spread by one point. Disgustingly for us, we are back on them here.

The Vikings will be able to run the ball — by success rate (43.5 percent), the Vikings had their best rushing game last week in two months — as the Giants allow explosive runs at the NFL’s highest rate (13.1 percent).

The re-emergence of a healthier Saquon Barkley does give us pause as, though the Vikings are tough against the run, they are not very good at covering running backs. Not to mention that the Giants pass rushers are all finally healthy.

The pick: Vikings -4

Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots (+3.5) | 1 p.m. ET Saturday, CBS

The Patriots’ playoff chances are laying on the turf, next to the stiff-armed Mac Jones, watching Chandler Jones run away and score last Sunday after the dumbest play in NFL history.

What just happened?? The @Raiders win on the final play!! #NEvsLV pic.twitter.com/cmKNUuab1k

— NFL (@NFL) December 19, 2022

It will be hard to bounce back with such a bad offense. The Patriots are averaging 18.43 points per game on offense, the second fewest of the Bill Belichick era, trailing only the 2000 team (16.81). As a rookie, Jones, who really needs a strong finish to the season, attempted 41 passes outside the numbers and 15-plus air yards in 17 games. This year, he has 34 such passes in 11 games. He is 10-of-34 for 315 yards (9.26 YPA), one TD and two interceptions — which ranks 32nd in EPA per dropback.

The Bengals, though, are coming off a misleadingly easy comeback win against the Buccaneers, as they scored three touchdowns off turnovers in the second half. No one is questioning the team’s toughness, but it will be looking past the Patriots as the Bengals have big games coming up against the Bills and Ravens. The visiting Bengals also have a lot of injuries on the defensive line, which will somehow help the gross Patriots offense score enough points to lose by a field goal or less … or even win.

The pick: Patriots +3.5

Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers (+2.5) | 1 p.m. ET Saturday, Fox

The Lions are rolling, even getting a win outdoors in New Jersey thanks to a punt returned for a touchdown. We had the Lions five weeks in a row and yes, they have covered the spread seven weeks in a row … so we might be a little bitter.

The Panthers have a good defense and are coming off a tough loss to the Steelers. They are playing hard (and have gone 4-5) for interim coach Steve Wilks, and I like the matchup as home underdogs in cold weather against Jared Goff and the Lions.

Sam Darnold is not terrible when he is not pressured, and the Lions are better at stopping the run than getting in the quarterback’s face. This is Darnold’s first three-game stretch without an interception since Weeks 13 to 15 in 2020, and we probably just jinxed ourselves.

The pick: Panthers +2.5

Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens (-7) | 1 p.m. ET Saturday, Fox

Is this the week that Lamar Jackson comes back to save the season? He didn’t practice again Wednesday, so who knows. You wouldn’t think the Ravens would need him to beat the Falcons by more than seven points, but the offense didn’t look great even with him and the defense is inconsistent.

Desmond Ridder struggled in his debut for the Falcons, but they stayed true to what they do — run the ball with Cordarrelle Patterson and promising rookie Tyler Allgeier and use a lot of play action (45.7 percent). The Ravens rank 25th in defensive success rate vs. play action (47.7 percent.)

Baltimore did add veteran receiver Sammy Watkins, if you think they might get a boost. Among 116 WRs who have run 150-plus routes, Watkins ranks 72nd in yards/route (1.31) and 82nd in catch rate (59.1 percent).

I guess we’ll lay the points with the home team, but I am not thrilled about it.

The pick: Ravens -7

Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers (-7) | 4:05 p.m. ET Saturday, CBS

This will be a better test of Brock Purdy than the Seahawks game, as the Commanders are pretty good against the run. Then again, maybe it doesn’t matter. In Purdy’s two starts, the 49ers have averaged 5.29 offensive EPA per game, which is the most they’ve averaged with any starting QB during the Kyle Shanahan era.

Washington outgained the Giants last week and lost in part to some shady behavior by the officials on the final two plays. Taylor Heinicke had been able to avoid turnovers before last week, and he has a talented enough receiving corps to hang around in this game. And to hold on to his job now that Carson Wentz is back.

Besides, the 49ers clinched the NFC West and are overdue for one of their small naps — even though they are going full-bore for the No. 2 playoff seed.

The pick: Commanders +7

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5) | 4:25 p.m. ET Saturday, Fox

This point spread started rocketing up Monday morning, even before the news of Jalen Hurts’ shoulder injury came out. No one, it appears, has any faith in backup Gardner Minshew — who is 7-9 ATS as an underdog in his starts. Of course, the 13-1 Eagles have a much better supporting cast than the Jaguars did. And they haven’t officially ruled out Hurts, either.

Though the Cowboys had a historic collapse against the Jaguars and have registered just one sack in the past two weeks, they posted a pressure rate of 42.5 percent in those games (their season average is 42.4). Since entering the league in 2019, Minshew ranks 19th out of 45 qualified QBs in EPA/DB when pressured (500-plus total pass attempts since 2019 as the qualifier).

Hmmm, Cowboys win by 3.

The pick: Eagles +4.5

Las Vegas Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) | 8:15 p.m. ET Saturday, NFL Network

Kenny Pickett is back at quarterback for the Steelers, but what he is going to be able to do in freezing-cold weather against a red-hot Chandler Jones?

The Raiders are 4-1 in their past five games, a stretch in which Jones ranks 10th in the NFL in pressure rate (15.5 percent) out of 79 qualified players (100-plus pass rush snaps in that span). Jones’ nine QB hits since Week 11 are tied for fifth, with teammate Maxx Crosby first with 15 QB hits.

We also have no interest in picking the Raiders as their overachieving offensive line is a mess again with two starting guards possibly out, not to mention Derek Carr is 0-6 with ugly stats in games where it’s colder than 37 degrees. It’s supposed to be 1 degree Saturday night. Uno.

The pick: Raiders +2.5 in what we project to be a tie game, 13-13.

Green Bay Packers at Miami Dolphins (-4) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox

The Packers are back. That’s what everyone thinks after they beat the Bears and the Baker Mayfield-led Rams the past two games. I am not buying it, but this is another good matchup as the Dolphins won’t be able to get that much pressure on Aaron Rodgers either, and the Packers’ talented RB duo is ready to do its part.

Plus, the Packers’ pass defense is no great shakes, but they should be able to deal with Miami’s quick passing game. The Packers have allowed the fourth-lowest YPA (5.88) when the opposing QB gets rid of the ball in 2.5 seconds or less and surrendered explosive passes in these situations at the ninth-lowest rate (8.6 percent).

The bend-but-don’t-break approach should work in what should be a field-goal game either way.

The pick: Packers +4

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Rams (+2.5) | 4:30 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS/Nickelodeon

Everyone’s betting on the Broncos. Or maybe it’s just against Mayfield and the Rams. The Rams don’t throw the ball past the sticks on offense and then give everything up on third down on defense.

Mayfield, who should have retired after that comeback win against the Raiders, is throwing 38.2 percent of his throws at or past sticks, averaging 2.9 yards short of the sticks on all throws.

Oh, and he has been off target on a career-high 11.6 percent of throws of 5 air yards or less. (And to be fair, the offensive line is still a tattered mess. Of the eight penalties for 76 yards incurred by the Rams on Monday night, four were called against their offensive linemen.)

The Rams defense, meanwhile, generates pressure at the lowest rate on third down (26.5 percent). Easy win for the Broncos, especially if Russell Wilson is back. He finally looked like his old self in that close loss to the Chiefs two weeks ago, and beleaguered coach Nathaniel Hackett might be hitting his stride as well.

The pick: Broncos -2.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Arizona Cardinals (+7.5) | 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC

With Kyler Murray and Colt McCoy both injured, Trace McSorley is starting at quarterback for the Cardinals. That’s why the spread has gone up 4.5 points already and will go up more. The Cardinals won’t be able to move the ball, which is fitting in a matchup of two teams that rank at the bottom of the league in yards/route by WRs — both at 1.44.

Yeah, the Buccaneers are not a good team either. Haven’t been all season. Tom Brady has not trusted his offensive line — and he shouldn’t — and has not played well. Brady was historically bad against the Bengals. He’ll be looking out for J.J. Watt, who ranks 10th among defensive linemen in splash plays (32). His 9 1/2 sacks are his most through 14 games since 2018.

Laying a lot of points with the Bucs is a bad idea, but the alternative is going with McSorley. Or hoping that backup and “Hard Knocks” star David Blough gets a shot. Also bleak.

The pick: Buccaneers -7.5

Los Angeles Chargers at Indianapolis Colts (+4.5) | 8:15 p.m. ET Monday, ESPN

Since Jeff Saturday took over in Week 10, the Colts have been outscored by 66 points after halftime, the worst mark in the NFL during that span. The aura of over-confidence finally wears off the opposing team.

The Chargers defense is improving at the right time — by defensive EPA, two of the Chargers’ four best defensive performances have come in the past two weeks — and now they get to face a Colts team without RB Jonathan Taylor. (Though backups Zack Moss and Deon Jackson aren’t terrible.)

But I think the Colts pass rush will harass Justin Herbert just enough for Nick Foles — yeah, Nick Foles … wild, huh? — and those two running backs to keep the Colts in the game. They will become the first team to blow a 33-0 lead and cover the point spread the following week.

The pick: Colts +4.5

—TruMedia research courtesy of NFL editor Aaron Reiss.

(Graphic: Sean Reilly / The Athletic; photo of Lovie Smith: Logan Riely / Getty Images)